Poor US data supports copper prices, but there is still resistance to the upside [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

SMM, June 5: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,640/mt, touching a low of $9,603.5/mt shortly after the opening bell. It then fluctuated considerably upward, reaching a high of $9,660/mt near the close, and eventually settled at $9,649/mt, up 0.11%. Trading volume reached 14,000 lots, and open interest stood at 284,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 78,050 yuan/mt, fluctuating upward in the early session to reach a high of 78,220 yuan/mt during the day. It then fluctuated downward, touching a low of 77,960 yuan/mt, before rebounding slightly near the close to settle at 78,140 yuan/mt, down 0.08%. Trading volume reached 26,000 lots, and open interest stood at 191,000 lots. On the macro front, the ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday showed that private sector employment in the US increased by only 37,000 jobs in May, far below expectations. Following the data release, Trump once again called on Fed Chairman Powell to lower interest rates. The US dollar index fell, returning to a six-week low, which was bullish for copper prices. On the fundamental side, from the supply perspective, the availability of mainstream high-quality copper was extremely tight. Suppliers, due to the scarcity of goods, had extremely low willingness to sell at low prices. Looking ahead to today, with the guidance of the narrowing price spread between futures contracts, it is expected that there is still downside room for premiums. Attention should be paid to whether parity will be broken. In terms of prices, with ongoing tariff concerns, it is expected that there will be limited upside potential for copper prices today.